A letter from Paris
March 10, 2004 - The Star-Ledger - Op-Ed
A few months back, if you asked most Europeans their thoughts on the U.S. presidential election, their answers could be summed up as “Anything but Bush!”
Now, with John Kerry leading the Democratic pack, people here are keenly watching the leadup to the event that they see as the tipping point for trans-Atlantic relations in the next four years.
An overarching feeling is that though Europeans remain flummoxed by the election process that brought GWB to office, they are willing to chalk it up to a fluke. However, four more years of what they see as trickle-down world leadership may be more than they are willing to pardon.
On top of the U.S. decision to largely go it alone in Iraq, the withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol, the rebuffing of the International Court of Justice and largely ignoring international offers of help after Sept. 11 have all been felt like diplomatic slaps in the face to traditional European allies, particularly those lumped into “old Europe.” Europeans may or may not accept playing second fiddle to the United States in world affairs, but they certainly haven’t enjoyed the “You’re No. 2!” vibe projected by George W. Bush and his cabinet.
A Bush re-election could mean that the previously overhyped anti- Americanism felt by Europeans might actually settle in.
It isn’t necessarily manifested in ways you’d expect. Humorist David Sedaris hit the nail on the head in describing French feeling toward Americans in France in a March 24, 2003, radio clip. After things heated up at the United Nations between the United States and France, he received a series of late-night calls from American friends worried about his safety.
His response? “I wonder how they knew I had the radio perched on the lip of the bathtub.”
The fact is, it’s nearly impossible to find an American here—resident or visitor—who has been subjected to much more than ribbing by Europeans who have trouble understanding Bush. Regardless of what happens in November’s election, this won’t change.
However, as Sedaris says, “To most of the outside world, he (Bush) sounds like a bully and a braggart.” Nearly a year later, Bush has done little to better market himself to the rest of the world, and by and large, opinions about him remain the same.
Barring a sudden turnaround, the results of this fall’s race could have one of two nearly opposite effects.
Four more years of leadership under Bush would illicit a collective groan from “old Europe,” and one effect could be that the luster on one of America’s most vital exports, the American dream, may dull significantly.
There are signs that this is already happening. French citizens Aude Plazenet, 26, a public relations director and her partner, physiotherapist Eric Martin, 34, are preparing for two years of working abroad in either Australia or Canada, a list that was recently shortened by one candidate.
Though Martin has long dreamed of road trips across the United States and both are fluent in English, Plazenet says, “We don’t have a great idea of what the U.S. is like now. We get the feeling we wouldn’t be very welcome.
“Our friends there have been sending us articles of what’s been going on,” she continues, “and you get the impression that Canada and Australia are less angry with us.”
In Europe, the anti-Americanism following a Bush re-election won’t result in a spike in attacks on tourists strolling the Champs- Elysées in baseball caps, T-shirts, shorts and sneakers, but it does risk manifesting itself in the American pocketbook—in areas such as trade and tourism. It would also be hard to see how political relations in Bush’s second term would be anything more than a réchauffé of the first.
What if someone other than Bush were elected?
“Champagne!” cries Gilles Delafon, a journalist and author on Franco-American relations. “We’re at odds with our traditional allies and everyone is asking, ‘What went wrong?’ People will be so relieved (if Bush is not re-elected), the president- elect won’t have to do a thing.”
No, it won’t be that simple, but replace Bush with a Europe- friendly Democratic candidate such as Kerry (who speaks French and has French family), and things will change dramatically.
People here—and it seems the French media, where the line between news and editorial is sometimes difficult to discern—are so rabidly hoping for someone new that they are quick to draw parallels between Kerry and a French favorite, John F. Kennedy.
Even European politicians, who rarely throw their support behind foreign candidates until after they are elected, are joining in the fray.
Socialist party secretary and one-time French minister to the European Union Pierre Moscovici even gave an interview in the Feb. 26 Le Parisien newspaper calling Kerry “one of the American politicians who best knows Europe and France.”
Moscovici says Bush “significantly hardened trans-Atlantic relations,” while with Kerry as president, “we could expect a dialogue to be taken up again.”
That said, Mocsovici remains realistic. “Whether French support him (Kerry) or not has no importance in the American debate,” he says.
Monsieur Moscovi may be selling things a bit short, but one thing is certain, Europe is watching.
Joe Ray is a freelance writer living in Paris.
